There are lots of interesting and valuable points made in this post. However, several assertions raise some secondary questions about the true nature of the statistical comparisons.
First, the link to a description of the unpublished Milliman study (a recent WSJ op ed) actually compared Medicare beneficiaries over age 65 to individuals under 65 with the same health-care needs (not to seniors who are still on private insurance). Perhaps the risk adjustment was so remarkably sophisticated that it made “everything equal” by accounting for all the differences in spending patterns for those two different types of patients, or perhaps thats why the ongoing study is still unpublished.
Second, CBOs most recent analysis of per capita spending in excess of GDP Growth does not rely on the 1975 to 2008 figure displayed. It